The 11 AM forecast for Erika is now available and shows a very slight shift to the west on the projected path, although the change is not large.  In their discussion the forecasters note that the storm is very disorganized, which makes it much harder to make an accurate prediction of where it is ultimately likely to go.

The storm is not expected to strengthen for the next two days due to wind shear, but after that some models show it strengthening while others show it decaying.  A large part depends on whether it takes a path over water or if it moves along the string of islands and gets disrupted by mountains and lack of warm water at the surface.  The most recent models have shown a somewhat slower progress than earlier predictions, so it is possible that we could see impacts later next week, especially in the more northern parts of our region.

Keep abreast of future developments at and make sure your preparations are in place well ahead of any potential impacts.

11 am Erika update 8-27-2015