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The problem with seasonal forecasts

Keith Carson wrote an entertaining article on his blog about seasonal forecasts.  You can read it here.  After a satire site printed a map showing an outlook for a very cold winter in the East that went viral, meteorologists spent a lot of time shooting down the “made-up” forecast.  Keith talks about this and how seasonal forecasts are made as well as giving an outlook for this winter based on actual forecasts from the Climate Prediction Center and other official sites.  Keep in mind that his blog is for the Northeast US, so you should look at the national maps to see the forecasts for the Southeast.  So far most of the official forecasts are going with a weak El Nino occurring, which should bring cooler and wet conditions to the southern parts of Alabama and Georgia and northern Florida but may not affect conditions elsewhere.