Following is a weather update from our UGA Climatologist, as Dorian nears. There are many unknowns. We are very early in the harvest season, and hopefully we will not have major effects from the storm, but we will watch and wait.
Weather Update: Pam Knox, Director, UGA Weather Network and Agricultural Climatologist
Some pretty significant changes in the path of TS Dorian over the last day have increased the risk of significant impacts to Georgia this weekend and next week. Dorian’s path has been farther east than originally forecast, which means that its circulation has avoided the mountainous terrain of the Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico. That means it was less disrupted than expected, and now is forecast to approach the east coast of Florida as a potentially major hurricane by Monday. The forecast cone includes all of the Georgia coast, however, and there are still likely to be significant changes to the forecast path. The more eastward path has also added time before the projected landfall, so that gives us a little extra time to prepare. There is also a slight chance the storm will recurve to the northeast before it hits the coast—in that case, breathe a sigh of relief and think of this as preparation for the next storm.
If you are in southwestern Georgia, do not let your guard down. A number of computer models indicate that the storm may cross the Florida peninsula and enter the Gulf of Mexico, where sea surface temperatures are above normal. A recurve to the north into Georgia is a possibility, and even if the storm weakens as you might expect, heavy rain and brief tornadoes could occur in that situation. The timing would be starting early next week due to the extra time it would take for Dorian to cross Florida, so you still have time to watch and prepare.
I am also retweeting at @SE_AgClimate and posting on Facebook at SEAgClimate as well as posting some additional information on my blog at https://site.extension.uga.edu/climate. However, make sure you are getting current information from reliable sources like the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local emergency managers for expected impacts in your area.