The American Pecan Council recently contracted with Land IQ to complete an analysis of pecan losses due to Hurricane Helene using satellite imagery. The APC and Land IQ worked closely with UGA for ground-truthing and observational information related to damage in the affected areas. This gives us the potential for a much higher degree of accuracy than we can make from our ground-level estimates alone.
The LandIQ analysis estimates that between 41,509-62,115 acres were affected by Hurricane Helene. Among these affected acres, 17,874-26,750 acres lost 20% or more of their pecan trees. For a comparison of the scale of damage, a similar LandIQ study showed 19,551 acres with at least 20% loss for Hurricane Michael.
The Land IQ Analysis estimates that Georgia lost between 23-39 million lbs of pecans to Hurricane Helene, leaving 77-103 million lbs of harvestable crop remaining in the state (approximately 70-79% of the pre-storm crop). The ranges here depict the discrepancies in the potential pre-storm crop estimate for the Georgia crop, which some placed as high as 130 million lbs. The low end of the above ranges assume a pre-storm crop yield to be the average of the 2021-2023 Georgia crop (110 million). As I have mentioned in previous blog posts, the annual Georgia crop yield is a continuously moving target with new acreage coming into production each year following the planting boom of the 2010’s and now the effects of hurricanes over the last few years. Most industry estimates during the growing season are simply wild guess-timates at this point. Interestingly, the Land IQ surveys estimate that 78% of pecan trees in Georgia’s pecan acreage at 20 years and older and 93% of the pecan trees in the affected area were of bearing age.
Many thanks to the American Pecan Council and LandIQ for their efforts with this survey.
The table below shows a comparison of our UGA preliminary damage estimates from on the ground assessment and the Land IQ satellite analysis:
| UGA Ground Assessment | Land IQ Satellite Analysis | |
| Pecan Acreage Affected | 48,810 acres | 41,509-62, 115 acres |
| Pecan Crop Loss | 36,135,000 lbs | 23-39 million lbs |
The complete report of the Land IQ survey is available here.
Pecan Prices and Current Supply
Most of the time, markets are said to operate on the law of supply and demand. The loss of 21-30% of the pecan crop from the largest pecan producing state in the nation during it’s ON-year crop would be expected to improve pecan prices paid to the grower, or at the very least, it would be expected to stabilize prices. However, that is not being reflected in reality. In fact, pecan prices paid to growers have dropped since harvest began. This comes on the heels of significant increases in domestic demand for pecans over the last several years (32% increase from 2016-2020) and a 28 million lb reduction in 2024 estimated total pecan supply (Carry-In, US crop, Mexico imports) compared to the 2023 crop as seen in the table below. There may be a very good explanation for reduced grower prices in the face of declining supply and rising demand. I welcome any informed response to help answer growers who are asking about the puzzling state of the pecan market and will be happy to post that response on a future pecan blog post to help growers better understand what is happening in the market. The industry is supplied ample information about grower costs of production, acreage, estimated crop, exports, imports, etc. to help shellers and buyers make good decisions for their businesses. A better and more transparent explanation of how the pecan market is currently operating would help growers to make more logical decisions about their operations in the future.
| 2023 Crop Year | 2024 Crop year (estimate) | |
| Carry-In | 124,454,000 | 145,000,000 |
| US Crop | 306,750,000 | 270,900,000 |
| Mexican Imports | 247,785,000 | 235,000,000 |
| Total Supply | 678,989,000 | 650,900,000 |
