Well, it looks like we’re facing yet another serious storm over Georgia’s pecan belt. I have held off commenting on this storm so far as a result of so much uncertainty surrounding it and the fact that as of this writing (Tuesday morning), it still has not fully formed. However, all the models are showing it likely doing so today and regardless of exactly where it comes in, it will affect Georgia’s pecan producing region. As a grower the only thing you can do at this point is to make sure your irrigation is turned off to give the ground as much drying time as possible before the winds and rain arrive. I have had calls about shaking the nuts from trees to lighten the crop load in an effort to prevent as much tree damage as possible. This is certainly an option for growers but I would want to wait as late as possible to do something that drastic–until there is a better indication of exactly where the storm will be going and how strong it will be when it arrives.
Of course, the Pawnee harvest was expected to begin for most growers this week. If you have shaken, get up what you can before the storm’s arrival. Most of the Pawnee nuts will likely be hitting the ground anyway. The outlook for these nuts in areas that hold water is not a good one. Rainfall amounts are expected to be 4-6″ so this obviously presents a problem for such spots as any mature Pawnee nuts blown from the trees will likely be submerged for a while. On high and dry, level land that drains, nuts blown out should be fine as long as we can get to them to harvest following the storm’s passing.
Almost all other varieties that I have looked at over the past week are completely filled out but the shucks are either not yet opening or just beginning to open. We will assuredly see nut loss from this storm as these are blown from the trees. It’s just a question of where and how much. With all the opinions out there regarding hedge pruning, one thing is for certain, if you have hedge pruned your trees, they are better off in terms of potential storm damage than non-hedged trees. Our research demonstrated a 60% reduction in wind damage following storms with hedging. Subsequent experience over the last several storms have supported that. Hedging doesn’t eliminate damage but it drastically reduces it.
The world we live in now seems to run on hype. I have purposely tried not to watch some of the media reports that sensationalize each storm that comes through. I recommend that you do the same. For the most accurate, up to date information about the storm that is not sensationalized but based only on facts and what is known about the storm’s path and strength potential, I recommend giving the most attention to NOAA’s National Hurricane Center found here.
Our state climatologist, Pam Knox, also gives excellent, fact-based reports and details about the storm in her updates. I am posting her most recent email regarding the storm below:
“Not any big changes to note from yesterday. PTC9 is still disorganized but starting to show some signs of rotation. It is expected to become Helene later today, a hurricane tomorrow, a major hurricane on Thursday before it makes landfall, and likely to be diminished to a tropical storm by the time it gets to south central Georgia late Thursday or early Friday morning. The track has been shifted slightly to the east so there will be more significant impacts near Savannah, but it is already expected to be a big storm so all of Georgia will be in play. Rainfall amounts across the state are expected to be 4-6 inches except in the far east, and most of North Georgia will be 6-8 inches, with more in the NE mountains. The NWS in Peachtree City is warning of the potential for a Predecessor Rain Event (PRE) in NW Georgia on Wednesday, a heavy rain event that sometimes occurs well out ahead of the main shield of hurricane rain, although they also caution it might not happen.
For timing, you can expect to see rain from the main storm start to enter southern GA by Wednesday night and move northward over the state on Thursday as the main storm approaches. The strong winds will likely arrive several hours later, peaking in North Georgia overnight Thursday into Friday. Since my house is surrounded by trees in Athens, I am considering sleeping in the basement just in case. I expect there to be a lot of problems with flooding, trees being blown over, and extensive power outages that could last for days in some locations. I recall that parts of my suburban neighborhood lost power for a week after Irma, and rural areas could have more trouble getting service back.
Keep in mind that timing, path, and all of the impacts of Helene may continue to shift as new data come in and the forecasts are revised, so keep checking for updates. Continue to prepare and to make plans to keep your family safe. The storm should be moving out of the area later on Friday from south to north, and then the real work of assessing the damage will begin.”
I recommend following Dr. Knox’s blog for here updates as well. You can find it here.
We will be giving a preliminary report on any damage to the pecan crop as soon as we can get a decent read on it following the storm. I’ll keep everyone in my prayers and you all do the same.
