Dec 9, 2021 | Written by Pam Knox
The latest ENSO discussion was released by NOAA today. It shows that La Nina is still expected to continue through the winter and that it is likely to transition to ENSO-neutral conditions sometime in the spring. You can read the discussion at https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/?enso_tab=enso-cpc_update. I will add that it is quite rare for La Nina to last for three years, so it seems likely to me that we will probably go into an El Nino later in this year, although that is still a long way off. In years that change from La Nina to El Nino, especially if it is a rapid transition, there is an enhanced chance of drought due to lack of soil moisture recharge over the La Nina winter. Too early to say, but something to keep an eye on. As you can see from my earlier post, drought is currently expanding in the Southeast, but we still have most of the winter to go.
