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The ACF Basin is drought-free according to the most current U.S. Drought Monitor (data as of 7/20/2021). Webinar recording can be found here. Next month’s ACF Drought and Water Webinar is on Tuesday, August 24, 2021 at 1:00pm ET. Register here for upcoming ACF monthly webinars. Sign up for ACF drought list here.
July Key Points ACF Climate Conditions and Outlooks Tropical Storms Danny (June 28-29) and Elsa (July 7) had minimal impact on the ACF, tropics quiet the remainder of July. Troughing and sagging frontal boundaries brought frequent, but not necessarily heavy rainfall to the Southeast in the last 6+ weeks. The Southeast U.S. is nearly entirely drought-free. Rainfall patterns typical for the last week, but above normal for the last 30-90 days. Typical scattered convection and rainfall forecast the next 7 days. Neutral conditions currently in the Pacific, La Nina advisory and 65% chance of La Nina returning this fall. The NOAA Climate Prediction Center seasonal forecast favors above normal temperatures, leans towards above normal rainfall. NOAA’s hurricane forecast calls for 60% chance of above normal year, less active than record-setting 2020. State of Alabama – The AL Drought Declaration was updated on 5/11/21 and does not include any drought designations. No current reported water availability issues. Alabama Drought Monitoring and Impact Group (MIG) will meet on 8/24/2021.
Real-Time Streamflow & Forecasts Real-time streamflow in the ACF basin are currently in the much above high to much below normal. The below normal 7-day average streamflow indicates that the ACF basin is hydrologically drought free. 28-day average streamflow for the Chattahoochee River are currently in the above normal to normal range. 28-day average streamflow for the Flint River are currently in the normal range. Real-time groundwater levels at well i.d. 08G001 and 11K003 are currently ranked above normal. No flooding expected in the next 10 days Both the 1-month and 3-month Southeast River Forecast Center streamflow forecast shows near normal conditions, although tropical systems may have influence.
ACF Basin Reservoir Conditions Inflows into the projects are slightly above normal due to the recent rain event. Currently, all projects but Walter F. George are operating slightly above guide curve. All projects are within Zone 1 and we are currently meeting all downstream minimum flow requirements. The ACF system conservation storage is in Zone 1 and is forecasted to remain in Zone 1 for the next few weeks.
Apalachicola Bay Daily Average Salinity Levels Cat Point salinity continued a similar pattern through July. Values have largely remained within the 25-75th percentile range. Dry bar salinity values increased then a large decrease was observed at the end of June, dropping to the lowest percentile range. Values have increased through July 9th. East Bay Bottom salinity values spiked at the end of May then gradually decreased into June. Unable to provide update for June 9th–July 9th period.
Current Drought Status
According to the most current U.S. Drought Monitor (data as of 6/15/2020).
0% of the ACF Basin is in drought0% of Alabama in D00% of Georgia in D01.13% of Florida in D00% of Florida in D1
Lawn and Garden Moisture Index
July 26, 2021’s Lawn and Garden Index from the University of Alabama at Huntsville displays expansive areas of wetness across the vast majority of the Southeast.
Rainfall Totals & Departures
30-Day Precipitation Totals
The past 30 days saw above normal rainfall totals.
90-Day Precipitation Departures
90-day rainfall departures show above normal rainfall.
NOAA 3 Month Outlook (June-Aug)
The NOAA 3-month Seasonal Outlook (Aug-Sept-Oct) favors above normal temperatures, leans towards above normal rainfall.
Real-time Streamflow
Real-time streamflow in the ACF basin are currently in the much above high to to much below normal range. (https://waterwatch.usgs.gov)
Chattahoochee River near Whitesburg28-Day Average Streamflows
28-day average streamflow for the Chattahoochee River are in the above normal to normal range, 28-day average streamflow for the Flint River are in the normal range, and the Apalachicola River flows are in the normal range.
The two reference groundwater wells (Dougherty and Miller Counties, GA) were ranked above normal. (https://waterwatch.usgs.gov)
ACF Reservoir Conditions
(as of 7/26/2021) Inflows into the projects are slightly above normal due to the recent rain event. Currently, all projects but Walter F. George are operating slightly above guide curve. All projects are within Zone 1 and we are currently meeting all downstream minimum flow requirements. The ACF system conservation storage is in Zone 1 and is forecasted to remain in Zone 1 for the next few weeks.
Apalachicola BayDaily Average Salinity Levels
Cat Point (above) salinity levels remain within normal range.
1-Month & 3-Month Mean Daily Streamflow Forecasts
The 1-month mean daily streamflow forecast predicts near normal flow conditions.
The 3-month mean daily streamflow forecast predicts near normal flows.
