While the tropics have quieted down quite a bit from their earlier spate of activity, it’s important to remember that the official end of the Atlantic tropical season is November 30, and that we still have almost a month to go before it ends (and some storms have occurred outside the regular season, for that matter). The National Hurricane Center today is showing an area of 40% probability of becoming a tropical storm in the next five days. The models don’t all agree on if or where it will hit the US, but most of them show it passing south of Florida, so it is not a huge cause for concern, but with warm ocean waters you always have to consider if it will spin up into something stronger. For a discussion of the situation, you can read the Weather Underground blog here.
