The latest ENSO outlook was posted today by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. It shows that La Nina conditions are still present in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific Ocean, but they are weakening. The new forecast is still indicating that the La Nina is likely to swing back to neutral conditions during the January through March period and is likely to stay in neutral conditions until the July-August period. Even if we go into neutral conditions, weak La Nina conditions are likely to continue to occur in the US, so we can continue to expect warmer and drier conditions than usual in the Southeast. The long-term prediction is for us to go into an El Nino next fall but it is not clear yet how strong it will be. You can read the discussion at https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml.
