The latest 7-day outlook from the National Hurricane Center shows two new areas of potential development in the Atlantic. The northern one highlights a small likelihood of development along a frontal boundary off the East Coast of the US. It is currently listed as just a 10% chance of developing in the next week. The two-day map shows a couple of additional areas of 10% chance of developing in the next two days but those areas do not show up on the 7-day map, so there is only a fleeting chance of anything going on there.
The other area of development was upgraded to a 30% chance of development in the next week. It is still in the far eastern Atlantic and the wave is currently moving westward in the Main Development Region, but not much signs of anything happening soon. The array of model solutions show the movement to the west continuing, and once the wave gets into more favorable conditions in the Caribbean where the water is warmer, it may grow. But it is not clear if it will move west into Central America or curve to the northwest. A few solutions move it towards the Gulf, but that is so far out we cannot put much if any credence in that. Even if it does develop and move in that direction, it would be 7-10 days before it reached the region near the Gulf, so at this point all we can do is watch. The sea surface temperatures in the Gulf are cooling off after recent cold frontal passages but are still relatively warm, so they could provide some energy to a strong wave.
Meanwhile, in most of the Southeast, dry and relatively warm conditions continue, so harvest should be running full out for many crops this week.
