The National Hurricane Center is posting an area with a 70% chance of development in the next week in the central Atlantic. However, every model I have seen indicates the storm, which is likely to be named Gabrielle, will turn to the north and will not affect the Southeast except the possibility of some high waves and rip currents along the East Coast. So we will not see any tropical activity for at least the next week and perhaps even two weeks. After that, the atmosphere becomes more favorable for the development of tropical storms, so by the end of the month we expect to see more activity occurring. If storms do develop near the East Coast or in the Gulf, we will likely see some fairly rapid development since the Gulf has record-setting warm temperatures right now, so don’t let your guard down. We have the whole second half of the Atlantic tropical season still to go.
