Tropical Storm Dexter formed this morning off the East Coast as it separated from an old stationary front and developed tropical characteristics. However, Dexter is moving rapidly to the northeast and poses no threat to us in the Southeast. The 7-day tropical outlook is showing two other areas of potential development for later in the week. The area in the central Atlantic that shows a 50% chance of developing is expected to curve to the north and stay out to sea, so the only impact we could see would be some waves and rip currents along the East Coast.
The third area, off the coast of the Carolinas, is currently listed as having a 30% chance of development, so it is something to watch for, although not a major concern. The early model runs for this potential tropical storm show that is most likely to stay weak and move towards the north, so the eastern parts of North Carolina and Virginia could see some impacts, mostly rain and gusty winds. A few model tracks send it west into South Carolina or Georgia and one or two even put it across the Florida Peninsula, but it should not affect most of the region, if any.
These recent signs of activity do herald the start of the most active part of the Atlantic hurricane season and we do expect the activity to ramp up by mid-August. This year will likely be a more typical season than last year, when we had almost no tropical activity in the Southeast between TS Debby in early August and Hurricane Helene at the end of September. So if you have done your preparations yet, it is not too late but don’t delay.
