Confidence is high that next week is going to be very cold across most of the region. Temperatures are likely to drop below freezing in nearly all of the region other than southern Florida and Puerto Rico several mornings from Monday through Thursday (depending on location and the final strength of the storm) and some areas may not see the daytime temperature rise above freezing for at least one day. You should be getting ready again for another period of dangerous cold that could harm livestock and freeze pipes.
With the cold temperatures returning and a lot of moisture nearby, the chance of wintry precipitation of some kind has increased too. What we don’t know is exactly where and when it will occur and whether it will be snow, sleet, or freezing rain. Brad Panovich, a well-known and respected broadcast meteorologist from North Carolina, prepared the diagrams below showing three possible paths of the developing low across the region (white is snow, pink is freezing rain, and green is regular rain). What you get at your location depends on which of the three tracks is the best depiction of where the low actually went, and the models do not yet agree on that. Amounts of snow or ice or rain cannot be determined at this point either. We will have more information over the next few days as the storm continues to develop.
What we do know based on an average of all of the models is that the chance of at least 1 inch of snow has now increased to over 50 percent in some areas based on the ensemble average of the European model runs as shown below. This is likely to occur over the period from Monday through Wednesday, starting in the west and moving eastward with the storm. If you have meetings that require travel on Tuesday or Wednesday, you will need to watch this especially carefully because Monday is a holiday and many groups may not think about the potential need to cancel activities that require people to drive to the meeting and let them know before they start driving. Because of the uncertainty of the track of the low and what weather might occur at your location, it may be too early to make a decision now, but you should be watching carefully and be prepared to take action if needed. I am scheduled to speak at the Corn Short Course on January 21 down in Tifton, and I will be watching very carefully to see if it is safe to drive from Athens to Tifton and back on that day, but am starting to wonder if that is a good idea.
