The latest tropical outlook, released earlier this evening, shows that the chance of tropical development somewhere in the western Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico over the next week has been increased to 70 percent. The models have converged somewhat in their ensembles of tracks to show a landfall along the Gulf Coast is becoming likely somewhere between Louisiana and southwest Florida, but the timing, strength, and track are impossible to determine at this point because there is no low pressure in that area yet and so it is impossible for the models to get a good handle on where any storm, if it does develop as seems likely, will go. Remember that the outlook map only shows where a storm is likely to form and says nothing about where it might go after it forms.
I understand that farmers are getting antsy to make decisions about the harvest of crops that are nearly ready to bring in, but there is a cost to making a decision too early if it is based on a forecast that is inaccurate, such as reduced yields or quality on cotton or peanuts. If you need to decide seven days ahead what to do, then you should probably plan on getting some rain late in the week, most likely on Thursday morning or later if you are in southern Georgia or Alabama or along the Florida Panhandle, but heavy rain would most likely come later if the storm center moves over you. Gusty winds could also be a possibility. If you want to plan for the worst case scenario, then a significant storm is not out of the question but has a very low probability of occurrence because every storm is different in path, intensity and impacts. I think for most people, you can probably wait until Monday to see if there is more guidance on where a storm might develop and go and make your plans then.
Most responsible meteorologists like James Spann and NWS forecasters are being properly cautious about making any statements about where or when a storm is likely to go beyond broad categories at this point, so if you are seeing maps showing big storms near the coast on social media, they are more likely the worst case scenarios from individual model runs published by people who are more interested in getting clicks than providing accurate information. These maps change with every model and every new run, so they can provide a snapshot of what might happen but they could also be wildly wrong. Use them with caution if you use them at all. I look at them but won’t post them on my blog because I don’t trust them.
