At 11 am today, Tropical Storm Francine formed in the western Gulf as it became more developed over the warm water there. Francine is expected to slowly move north and gain hurricane strength before it makes landfall along the Louisiana coast sometime Wednesday afternoon according to the current predictions. It will continue to move north and should not come into the Southeast region as it weakens, but since we will be on the right side of the storm, there is likely to be a strong flow of moisture into the region from the Gulf and the Atlantic Ocean, leading to a few inches of rain at most (nothing like what the main path of Debby experienced, thankfully). The rain will likely be considered a benefit to most farmers because most areas that will get hit are currently experiencing drought or abnormally dry conditions. There will be some gusty winds, especially in the rain bands, but they should not be too damaging in the Southeast.
While Florida is already experiencing rain ahead of the storm, the main rain shield from Francine should enter southern Alabama and Georgia by Wednesday morning and move slowly north over the day. By Thursday morning it will have entered central AL and GA and then will be in northern regions by Thursday night. The rain will fall in convective bands so there are likely to be periods of dry conditions between storms. The heaviest rain will be in western Alabama, the Florida Panhandle, and northeastern Georgia where the air gets a lift from the mountains. By Saturday afternoon there should just be some lingering showers left.
All of this depends on what path the center of Francine takes. Today the forecasts have been trending slightly west, which would reduce rain in the Southeast, but we don’t know if this trend will continue or if it will switch back to an easterly trend, so you need to keep watching the forecasts if you are doing field work that is rain-sensitive. The wind and rain will follow the path of Francine, so if the path changes, the amount of wind and rain you get are also likely to change.
