The latest 7-day QPF map shows that most of the region will have relatively light rainfall for the next seven days, with the biggest rain amounts falling in South Florida and in North Carolina and Virginia. The big question mark is the end of the period, when a tropical storm or hurricane may be approaching the Southeast from the Gulf. This map is produced using the GFS, which shows a storm approaching the northern Gulf Coast late in the week, but other computer models show different tracks and timings, so take the forecast for late in the week with some skepticism. Will most of the region get some rain? Yes, most likely. But the amount will vary a lot depending on the tropics, and it is too early to know where the tropical storm, if it forms, will go. I think most areas will see less than a quarter inch through Thursday morning except on the immediate Gulf Coast or in western Florida. You can get the rainfall breakdown by days at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day1-7.shtml.

Posted in: