The first official hurricane forecast for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season was released today by researchers at Colorado State University. The forecast shows that they expect 23 named storms this season due to a combination of La Nina and very warm ocean temperatures. You can read the details of how they produce the forecast at https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2024-04.pdf and a popular article about the forecast from Axios. They give the probabilities of a hit on the US coast by a major hurricane in this table:
PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST ONE MAJOR (CATEGORY 3-4-5)
HURRICANE LANDFALL ON EACH OF THE FOLLOWING COASTAL
AREAS:
1) Entire continental U.S. coastline – 62% (average from 1880–2020 is 43%)
2) U.S. East Coast Including Peninsula Florida (south and east of Cedar Key,
Florida) – 34% (average from 1880–2020 is 21%)
3) Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle (west and north of Cedar Key, Florida)
westward to Brownsville – 42% (average from 1880–2020 is 27%)
These forecasts will be updated several times during the season and other groups such as NOAA will also release their own forecasts in the coming weeks. If you are in an area that has the possibility of being affected by a tropical storm or hurricane, make sure you prepare your hurricane plans for your family and business now so that you will be ready when the storms start forming.
