During the day today, Nicole completed the transition to a Tropical Storm and as of 10 pm ET, is near hurricane force. It is not expected to strengthen much beyond that due to wind shear, even though it will be passing over the warm Gulf Stream soon. The general forecast path of the storm is similar to yesterday except that it is trending towards the west and a bit faster, which means that more of the Southeast will be in the area of strongest winds, highest rain, and chance of tornadoes. It also means that impacts could come sooner than originally thought, so complete your preparations soon, since a lot of the impactful weather will be north of Nicole’s center. The quicker speed will mean the storm will move through the region a little more quickly, which could reduce the total rainfall to some extent.
Storm surge predictions have been bumped up and new watches have been issued for the west coast of Florida, which should feel onshore winds as Nicole crosses the Florida Peninsula. Fortunately, the extended path over land will mean a quicker decay to a tropical depression before it accelerates to the northeast and out of our area on Friday.
Updates to the forecast will continue to come in as new data are collected, so don’t focus on the exact path of the storm, especially since it is so large with many impacts occurring outside the cone where the center is expected to track. You can get hurricane updates from the National Hurricane Center and local forecasts from your National Weather Service offices. Note that the rainfall map below does not include rain that will fall after Friday night as Nicole moves up through North Carolina and Virginia, so don’t be fooled if you live there.
