We have just finished the first month of the official Atlantic hurricane season. How unusual has it been? One thing is that we have already had three named storms, including Colin this past week (although the last time we had TS Colin in 2016, it occurred on June 6). The average date of the first “C” storm is around August 3, so we are definitely ahead of schedule. But the next couple of weeks look like they will be very quiet, which is not unusual for this early in the season and is caused in part by an unfavorable Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and also by a plume of Saharan dust that is suppressing the development of any waves coming off of Africa. Once that switches back to a more favorable pattern, we could see a burst of activity around the 2nd to 3rd week of August, according to this article in Forbes by Dr. Marshall Shepherd of UGA. Another thing to watch is the pool of unusually warm water in the northern Gulf, which could lead to rapid development of any storm which does come in that direction. Lots of time to watch, and also time to prepare if you have not already!
