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La Nina dominates outlook for November through January

The latest 3-month outlook for November 2021 through January 2022 was released by NOAA today. It shows that they expect the climate pattern over the winter to be aligned with the building La Nina, which was officially declared earlier this month. In a typical La Nina, the southern US is warmer and drier than usual as the storm track associated with the subtropical jet is pushed north. This is especially true in the southern part of the region, which is usually farthest from the track. So the forecast for November and the November through January period both reflect this shift and expected pattern.

Because of the dry and warm conditions, NOAA is expecting drought to develop in the Florida peninsula as well as to continue in eastern North Carolina with extensions north into Virginia and south into Georgia’s coastal plain where conditions are already dry.