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La Niña continues but expected to return to neutral this spring

The latest ENSO diagnostic discussion released today shows that La Niña conditions are continuing in the eastern Pacific Ocean but are expected to return to neutral conditions in the next few months. At this time it is suggesting that we may switch to an El Niño next winter, but spring forecasts are not considered very reliable for the next winter season, so take that with a grain of salt. In years with a change from La Niña to neutral conditions the Southeast often sees a dry spell in the May-June time period, although it does not always happen. Neutral conditions are also associated with a more active Atlantic tropical season, although we can’t predict where the storms will form or move this far ahead. You can read the discussion at http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml.