My lasat weekly Saturday blog post said this would be a wetter week, and that some areas would get a ton of rain.  So far, those predictions have not really materialized. Several people have asked me and other meteorologists, Why not?  It’s worth looking at the weather to see where the forecast has fallen short.

The major driver of the weather this week has been a slowly-moving low pressure center which has been wobbling around the Southeast.  Yesterday it was moving north through Georgia, and then turned west and south again.  The counter-clockwise circulation has brought intermittent showers to many parts of the Southeast, some heavier than others.  But while the movement of the low has continued to bring very moist air into the region, the storms have been less productive than expected, and there has been a lot of clear skies and drier conditions between the showers.

Another factor has been the dry soil conditions due to the drought in Georgia, which have also worked to reduce storm development.  Meteorologists were hopeful that the dynamics of the storm were so strong that storms would be able to develop in spite of the dry conditions, but with the weaker low meandering around the region, no widespread rain event materialized.  The focus of rain now has moved to the west, and while showers will continue to develop and move across the area, there will be plenty of dry conditions in between storms.

The first map shows the 24 hour rainfall as of the morning of August 9, showing the heaviest rain as expected along the coast of Florida, but lesser amounts elsewhere.  The second map shows the rainfall from Peachtree City GA across northern Georgia from then until late evening as estimated by radar.  It shows that most areas have received at least a few drops of rain, but only a few isolated spots received significant rainfall.  The streakiness of the radar shows where the individual showers moved from southeast to northwest across Georgia.

1-day rainfall on the morning of August 9, 2016
1-day rainfall on the morning of August 9, 2016

ffc rainfall 8-9-2016 am to pm