We went into winter knowing that we were in a La Nina weather pattern which normally means a warmer drier winter for south Georgia, but that wasn’t the case. We were a little cooler and definitely wetter than normal. Now we know why. A La Nina usually pushes the jet stream north which causes the warmer drier conditions but this year there was unexpected warming in the atmosphere around the North Pole. This Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) pushed the polar vortex off-center which is why we were cooler and drier this past winter. The SSW has gone away so things are expected to shift back to normal. The polar vortex being pushed off-center explains some of the extreme colds that were witnessed in the Midwest.

We are at the end of a moderate La Nina which means things should go back to neutral conditions. Usually, we experience drought after a La Nina mainly because the drier winter didn’t let the soil moisture recharge but with the excess rain this winter that might not be the case. The concerning thing here the high potential for another active tropical season so we could see more storms this season. The long-range forecast shows that we may fall back into another La Nina this coming fall but at this point who knows? It’s always a guessing game.

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