The new 2014 Georgia Wheat Production Guide is now ready and you can access by clicking here, Or if you need us to, we can get a copy for you.
There’s lots of very good information in it about markets and about growing the wheat efficiently.
Here’s a price outlook by Dr. Nathan Smith, UGA Ag Economist.
Local mills in Georgia and neighboring states are the main source of mill demand for Georgia
wheat. Mill demand does not fluctuate as much as exports but the domestic mill use is also
Exports are a key factor on the year-to-year price of soft red winter wheat. Wheat has
generally followed corn prices during the bull run of the last three years. New crop prices in
Georgia are lower than the last couple years with basis ranging between 50 to 65 cents under
July futures. Basis for 2014 harvest is around 65 cents under July 2014 futures.
Contract prices will likely range between $5 and $6 per bushel, more likely in the lower part of this range. Corn prices aren’t seen has helping wheat prices in the near future so rallies will have to be driven by wheat news and fundamentals.
Fundamental supply and demand estimates indicate supply is increasing and the U.S. faces strong export competition in the world market. Acreage should decrease in Georgia and other SRW wheat producing areas. Given the outlook for supply and demand, some price protection should be considered on rallies to approaching $6 through either contracting, futures or options.
Here are some good charts provided by Dr. Smith that are further explained in the production guide.