I reached out to our retired UGA Climatologist Pam Knox to get her insight on what the stron El Nino will mean for famers. She shared the following points:
If you have been following social media you have undoubtedly seen highly excited posts about the current strong El Nino that is occurring and the prediction that it will become the “strongest ever recorded”. Many media outlets are calling it a “Super El Nino” because of that. Here are some points that you should keep in mind.
- It is called a very strong El Nino because the Eastern Pacific Ocean (EPO) where El Nino occurs is expected to be much warmer than average and even stronger than other El Ninos have been in the past. Very strong El Ninos are associated with temperatures in the EPO more than 2 C above the long-term average. The last time we had one was 2015. Most predictions indicate this winter it could be 2.5 C above average or potentially even higher. This is due to a combination of the usual El Nino cycle overlaid on top of the warming oceans from global warming.
- The likelihood that it will be very strong does not mean the impacts will be very strong, but it does mean we have a higher confidence that they will occur somewhere in the region. The usual impacts of an El Nino in the Southeast are a subtropical jet that is located over the region, bringing frequent periods of stormy weather to the area. This means that winter will likely be wetter and cooler than normal for most of the winter. The cold temperatures are due to days of cloudy weather and rain, not necessarily from Arctic air moving in. The exact location of where the coolest and wettest conditions occur cannot be determined precisely because it depends on weather patterns in other parts of the globe, but statistically the most likely area to be wetter and colder than normal is southern GA and AL and down into northern Florida. Every El Nino is different, though, so this year may be different from what we expect.
- Since the El Nino is strong and getting stronger, we are already seeing some impacts. The biggest impact right now is a high-level jet stream that is preventing tropical waves from developing into tropical cyclones. This is why the forecasts for the number of Atlantic named storms are lower than average. Without tropical storms, we can expect to see less tropical rain. Last year that meant very dry conditions, so that could be an outcome later this fall, but we will see. Once the El Nino winter pattern kicks in, we could see many days with cloudy and rainy conditions. This has impacts on farmers who got off to a late start planting this year and need every day to be good weather going into harvest. If the El Nino rainy pattern starts earlier in fall, that could mean farmers will have to make tough decisions about when to harvest and when to plant winter forage and small grains. It is essential that they frequently monitor weather forecasts from reliable sources to make sure they can harvest in good conditions. I think it is likely that that pattern will start in November, but that is just my guess, and I have been wrong before.
- The El Nino is expected to last through the winter into next spring. That means we could see lots of rainy and cloudy days over the winter months. The average temperature overall is likely to be near to slightly below normal because of the combined effects of El Nino and the warming climate. We will likely have some cold outbreaks, but I don’t expect a lot of very cold weather because clouds and moisture will keep overnight temperatures higher, although we will certainly get some. We could see snowstorms, but that relies on a timely overlap of high moisture and really cold air coming at the same time, and that does not always occur. We could also see more severe weather because the surface front associated with the subtropical jet aloft will be closer to us.
- For fruit farmers, the cooler conditions mean that we should get plenty of chill hours this winter. Spring frosts in El Nino years are no more common than in La Nina years and fewer occur than in neutral springs, so while there is some chance of a late frost, it is not higher than usual.
- Because of the cold and wet winter conditions, I expect that there will be delays in planting next spring because it may be hard to get out in the fields. Take advantage of good days to get field work done when you can.
- The good news is that the summer after an El Nino seldom has a big drought, especially in the early part of the growing season.