NOAA released their January 2017 update for ENSO (the oscillation that is the combination of El Ni\u00f1o and La Ni\u00f1a) this week. \u00a0It shows that weak La Ni\u00f1a conditions still remain in the eastern Pacific, but that they are expected to go back to neutral conditions within two months. \u00a0Even though it will be technically neutral, La Ni\u00f1a-like conditions may remain, leading to at least parts of the Southeast (most likely Florida) to be warmer and drier than normal. \u00a0Early forecasts for late in 2017 are showing a possible swing to El Ni\u00f1o, but NOAA reminds folks not to take that too seriously yet, since the models this time of year are notoriously poor at these predictions (it’s called the “spring predictability barrier”) and an El Ni\u00f1o to La Ni\u00f1a back to El Ni\u00f1o swing in two years seldom happened in the past record. \u00a0One thing that we do know from past neutral springs is that the chance of a late frost goes up since the atmosphere often swings more wildly than usual between cold and warm episodes. \u00a0So don’t get too anxious to start planting if we have a warm spell until you know a cold wave is not just down the pike.<\/p>\n
You can read the discussion at\u00a0https:\/\/www.climate.gov\/news-features\/blogs\/enso\/january-2017-enso-update-happy-new-year<\/a>.<\/p>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/site.extension.uga.edu\/climate\/files\/2017\/01\/SST_Anomaly-OND2016_620-300x207.png\")
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