{"id":4133,"date":"2015-08-24T14:35:55","date_gmt":"2015-08-24T18:35:55","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/site.extension.uga.edu\/climate\/?p=4133"},"modified":"2015-08-24T14:35:55","modified_gmt":"2015-08-24T18:35:55","slug":"ensemble-forecasts-give-confidence-in-seasonal-predictions","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/site.extension.uga.edu\/climate\/2015\/08\/ensemble-forecasts-give-confidence-in-seasonal-predictions\/","title":{"rendered":"Ensemble forecasts give confidence in seasonal predictions"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Seasonal forecasts are available from a number of sources, including the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cpc.noaa.gov\/\" target=\"_blank\">Climate Prediction Center<\/a>\u00a0(CPC) and the <a href=\"https:\/\/iri.columbia.edu\/our-expertise\/climate\/forecasts\/seasonal-climate-forecasts\/\" target=\"_blank\">International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI)<\/a>. \u00a0Today the Illinois State Climatologist, Jim Angel, wrote in his <a href=\"https:\/\/climateillinois.wordpress.com\/2015\/08\/24\/another-forecast-suggests-a-higher-chance-of-a-wet-fall-in-illinois\/\" target=\"_blank\">blog<\/a> about another CPC source of monthly and seasonal forecasts at\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov\/products\/NMME\/seasanom.shtml\" target=\"_blank\">https:\/\/www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov\/products\/NMME\/seasanom.shtml<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>The <em>North American Multi-Model Ensemble<\/em> provides forecasts from different climate prediction models and combines them together into an ensemble forecast. \u00a0This is a typical technique used to provide forecasts with a higher degree of confidence, and is used in hurricane forecasting and weather forecasting as well as seasonal forecasts. \u00a0The web site shows the predicted patterns for anomalies of surface temperature (Tmp2m) and precipitation (prate) for the globe and the US for each of the seven models in the ensemble. \u00a0You can look at the results of individual models and compare them to find the areas of highest agreement.<\/p>\n<p>The map below shows the\u00a0precipitation\u00a0forecast for September-October-November (this is season 1 on the table). \u00a0The highest probabilities of above normal precipitation in SON are in the Southwest. \u00a0In the Southeast, the probabilities are for a wet fall but with lower probability than the Southwest. \u00a0If you look at the results of the individual models, you can see that 5 of 7 show a wetter fall, but two show normal or drier conditions. \u00a0There is no way to tell in advance which model will do best in each situation, so by looking at the range of possibilities you get a better sense of what might be likely to occur.<\/p>\n<p>If you go to the home site\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov\/products\/NMME\/\" target=\"_blank\">https:\/\/www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov\/products\/NMME\/<\/a>, you can also get ensemble forecasts for individual months.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/site.extension.uga.edu\/climate\/files\/2015\/08\/nmme-son-precip.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone  wp-image-4134\" src=\"https:\/\/site.extension.uga.edu\/climate\/files\/2015\/08\/nmme-son-precip-300x232.png\" alt=\"nmme son precip\" width=\"374\" height=\"289\" srcset=\"https:\/\/site.extension.uga.edu\/climate\/files\/2015\/08\/nmme-son-precip-300x232.png 300w, https:\/\/site.extension.uga.edu\/climate\/files\/2015\/08\/nmme-son-precip-179x138.png 179w, https:\/\/site.extension.uga.edu\/climate\/files\/2015\/08\/nmme-son-precip.png 640w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 374px) 100vw, 374px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Seasonal forecasts are available from a number of sources, including the Climate Prediction Center\u00a0(CPC) and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI). \u00a0Today the Illinois State Climatologist, Jim Angel, wrote in his blog about another CPC source of monthly and seasonal forecasts at\u00a0https:\/\/www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov\/products\/NMME\/seasanom.shtml. The North American Multi-Model Ensemble provides forecasts from different climate [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":58,"featured_media":4134,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5,6],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4133","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-climate-and-ag-in-the-news","category-sources-of-weather-and-climate-data"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/site.extension.uga.edu\/climate\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4133","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/site.extension.uga.edu\/climate\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/site.extension.uga.edu\/climate\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/site.extension.uga.edu\/climate\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/58"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/site.extension.uga.edu\/climate\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4133"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/site.extension.uga.edu\/climate\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4133\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":4135,"href":"https:\/\/site.extension.uga.edu\/climate\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4133\/revisions\/4135"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/site.extension.uga.edu\/climate\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/4134"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/site.extension.uga.edu\/climate\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4133"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/site.extension.uga.edu\/climate\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4133"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/site.extension.uga.edu\/climate\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4133"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}