{"id":29814,"date":"2026-03-30T11:12:46","date_gmt":"2026-03-30T15:12:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/site.extension.uga.edu\/climate\/?p=29814"},"modified":"2026-03-30T11:12:46","modified_gmt":"2026-03-30T15:12:46","slug":"the-coming-strong-el-nino-and-what-it-might-look-like-next-winter","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/site.extension.uga.edu\/climate\/2026\/03\/the-coming-strong-el-nino-and-what-it-might-look-like-next-winter\/","title":{"rendered":"The coming strong El Nino and what it might look like next winter"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Those of you who follow ENSO know that we are currently transitioning from La Nina to neutral conditions. A strong El Nino is expected to follow by later this summer and last through next winter, although since it is spring there is still a lot of uncertainty in that forecast. If it does happen, what can we expect to see in a strong or even “super” El Nino next winter? A colleague of mine, Jan Null, put together snapshots of all the previous El Nino winters (December through February) climates from past events, organized by weak, moderate, strong, and very strong events. You can look for yourself what the variability is from one event to the next and its impact on your location. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Of course, as they say, past performance is no indication of future conditions, so keep in mind that whatever happens is not likely to look exactly like any of the previous years, but it gives you an idea of what the spread might be, assuming that El Nino does occur as expected. You can see the snapshots here<\/a>. The last very strong El Nino we had was back in 2015-2016 and I have put that below, but don’t expect the next one to look just like this.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Those of you who follow ENSO know that we are currently transitioning from La Nina to neutral conditions. A strong El Nino is expected to follow by later this summer and last through next winter, although since it is spring there is still a lot of uncertainty in that forecast. If it does happen, what […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":58,"featured_media":29817,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[22],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-29814","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-el-nino-and-la-nina"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/site.extension.uga.edu\/climate\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29814","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/site.extension.uga.edu\/climate\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/site.extension.uga.edu\/climate\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/site.extension.uga.edu\/climate\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/58"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/site.extension.uga.edu\/climate\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=29814"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/site.extension.uga.edu\/climate\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29814\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":29818,"href":"https:\/\/site.extension.uga.edu\/climate\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29814\/revisions\/29818"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/site.extension.uga.edu\/climate\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/29817"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/site.extension.uga.edu\/climate\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=29814"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/site.extension.uga.edu\/climate\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=29814"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/site.extension.uga.edu\/climate\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=29814"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}