{"id":1304,"date":"2014-11-14T10:33:04","date_gmt":"2014-11-14T15:33:04","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/site.extension.uga.edu\/climate\/?p=1304"},"modified":"2021-10-18T11:18:28","modified_gmt":"2021-10-18T15:18:28","slug":"how-to-interpret-probabilistic-forecasts","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/site.extension.uga.edu\/climate\/2014\/11\/how-to-interpret-probabilistic-forecasts\/","title":{"rendered":"How to interpret probabilistic forecasts"},"content":{"rendered":"

One of the toughest things for climatologists to explain is what a 55 percent chance of El Nino or a 40 percent chance of an above normal winter is.\u00a0 Two examples of probabilistic forecasts are shown below.\u00a0 The pie chart is from AgroClimate.org<\/a> and the bar graph is from IRI<\/a> at Columbia University.\u00a0Most people think they are just wishy-washy and that climatologists are just hedging their bets.\u00a0 Well, NOAA just put out an excellent blog posting describing how to make sense of these probabilistic forecasts, which are so common in climate outlooks.\u00a0 You can read it at https:\/\/www.climate.gov\/news-features\/blogs\/enso\/betting-climate-predictions.<\/a><\/p>\n

\"el<\/a>\u00a0 \"iri<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

One of the toughest things for climatologists to explain is what a 55 percent chance of El Nino or a 40 percent chance of an above normal winter is.\u00a0 Two examples of probabilistic forecasts are shown below.\u00a0 The pie chart is from AgroClimate.org and the bar graph is from IRI at Columbia University.\u00a0Most people think […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":58,"featured_media":1307,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4,6,8],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1304","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-climate-outlooks","category-sources-of-weather-and-climate-data","category-tools-for-climate-and-agriculture"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/site.extension.uga.edu\/climate\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1304","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/site.extension.uga.edu\/climate\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/site.extension.uga.edu\/climate\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/site.extension.uga.edu\/climate\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/58"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/site.extension.uga.edu\/climate\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1304"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/site.extension.uga.edu\/climate\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1304\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":22918,"href":"https:\/\/site.extension.uga.edu\/climate\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1304\/revisions\/22918"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/site.extension.uga.edu\/climate\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1307"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/site.extension.uga.edu\/climate\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1304"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/site.extension.uga.edu\/climate\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1304"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/site.extension.uga.edu\/climate\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1304"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}