{"id":11750,"date":"2017-07-14T12:46:11","date_gmt":"2017-07-14T16:46:11","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/site.extension.uga.edu\/climate\/?p=11750"},"modified":"2017-07-14T12:46:20","modified_gmt":"2017-07-14T16:46:20","slug":"el-nino-not-too-likely-this-year","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/site.extension.uga.edu\/climate\/2017\/07\/el-nino-not-too-likely-this-year\/","title":{"rendered":"El Ni\u00f1o not too likely this year"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The latest ENSO forecast from NOAA indicates that the development of an El Ni\u00f1o later this year is increasingly unlikely, although it is not zero. \u00a0A La Nina is very unlikely to form. \u00a0The latest IRI forecast graph shows that neutral conditions are likely to continue for the next few months based on an ensemble of computer forecasts. \u00a0That means it will be difficult to make any predictions about next winter&#8217;s weather, although neutral conditions are associated with more active Atlantic tropical seasons (hence the current high-activity forecast for this year) and are also associated with late frosts in the next spring. Since we are past the spring predictability barrier this should be a fairly high-probability forecast. You can read the NOAA discussion at\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov\/products\/analysis_monitoring\/enso_advisory\/ensodisc.shtml\">https:\/\/www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov\/products\/analysis_monitoring\/enso_advisory\/ensodisc.shtml<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/site.extension.uga.edu\/climate\/files\/2017\/07\/iri-plume-july-13-2017.gif\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-11751\" src=\"https:\/\/site.extension.uga.edu\/climate\/files\/2017\/07\/iri-plume-july-13-2017-300x178.gif\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"178\" srcset=\"https:\/\/site.extension.uga.edu\/climate\/files\/2017\/07\/iri-plume-july-13-2017-300x178.gif 300w, https:\/\/site.extension.uga.edu\/climate\/files\/2017\/07\/iri-plume-july-13-2017-233x138.gif 233w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The latest ENSO forecast from NOAA indicates that the development of an El Ni\u00f1o later this year is increasingly unlikely, although it is not zero. \u00a0A La Nina is very unlikely to form. \u00a0The latest IRI forecast graph shows that neutral conditions are likely to continue for the next few months based on an ensemble [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":58,"featured_media":11751,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4,22],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-11750","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-climate-outlooks","category-el-nino-and-la-nina"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/site.extension.uga.edu\/climate\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11750","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/site.extension.uga.edu\/climate\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/site.extension.uga.edu\/climate\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/site.extension.uga.edu\/climate\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/58"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/site.extension.uga.edu\/climate\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=11750"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/site.extension.uga.edu\/climate\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11750\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":11752,"href":"https:\/\/site.extension.uga.edu\/climate\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11750\/revisions\/11752"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/site.extension.uga.edu\/climate\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/11751"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/site.extension.uga.edu\/climate\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=11750"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/site.extension.uga.edu\/climate\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=11750"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/site.extension.uga.edu\/climate\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=11750"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}