{"id":11067,"date":"2017-05-12T07:50:15","date_gmt":"2017-05-12T11:50:15","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/site.extension.uga.edu\/climate\/?p=11067"},"modified":"2017-05-12T07:50:38","modified_gmt":"2017-05-12T11:50:38","slug":"noaa-el-nino-update-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/site.extension.uga.edu\/climate\/2017\/05\/noaa-el-nino-update-2\/","title":{"rendered":"NOAA: El Nino update"},"content":{"rendered":"

“Will he or won’t he?” \u00a0A question I’ve been getting a lot lately is whether or not we are headed into our next El Ni\u00f1o. \u00a0Fortunately for us in the Southeast, if we have either an El Ni\u00f1o or the opposite La Ni\u00f1a, statistically we have some idea of what climate conditions to expect during the winter months. \u00a0But NOAA’s latest outlook<\/a>, published yesterday, puts us at just at just under 50% chance of going into an El Ni\u00f10, with another near 50% chance we won’t. \u00a0Doesn’t look like La Ni\u00f1a is a likely option in the coming year.<\/p>\n

This is a pull-back from earlier forecasts, when strong ocean warming in the eastern Pacific Ocean made it look like a new El Ni\u00f1o might be developing. But those conditions have disappeared and the current forecasts make it look like we will be hovering near a 0.5 degree positive anomaly. \u00a0For an official El Ni\u00f1o to be declared, we have to have several months of ocean temperature anomalies of over 0.5 C, so we may be flirting with El Ni\u00f1o-like conditions even if one does not officially develop. Now that we are over the spring prediction barrier, we should have a clearer view of what will happen in the eastern Pacific for next fall and winter. \u00a0Stay tuned!<\/p>\n

Also note in the sea surface temperature map below the warmer-than average temperatures across a wide portion of the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans, which may help fuel tropical storm activity if the dynamics are right.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

“Will he or won’t he?” \u00a0A question I’ve been getting a lot lately is whether or not we are headed into our next El Ni\u00f1o. \u00a0Fortunately for us in the Southeast, if we have either an El Ni\u00f1o or the opposite La Ni\u00f1a, statistically we have some idea of what climate conditions to expect during […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":58,"featured_media":11068,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4,22],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-11067","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-climate-outlooks","category-el-nino-and-la-nina"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/site.extension.uga.edu\/climate\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11067","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/site.extension.uga.edu\/climate\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/site.extension.uga.edu\/climate\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/site.extension.uga.edu\/climate\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/58"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/site.extension.uga.edu\/climate\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=11067"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/site.extension.uga.edu\/climate\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11067\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":11070,"href":"https:\/\/site.extension.uga.edu\/climate\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11067\/revisions\/11070"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/site.extension.uga.edu\/climate\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/11068"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/site.extension.uga.edu\/climate\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=11067"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/site.extension.uga.edu\/climate\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=11067"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/site.extension.uga.edu\/climate\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=11067"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}