I have been getting a lot of calls and emails this week asking why the tropics have been so quiet. In reality, we are pretty close to average conditions. The last two years had active conditions early in the season compared to this one, but there is a lot of variation from one year to the next. Activity or lack of it early in the season does not have any correlation to what will happen later in the season. We have had three named storms, although most of them were very short-lived and did not amount to much except the heavy rain and wind from TS Chantal in central NC. No hurricanes yet, but the average date of the first hurricane in the Atlantic is August 11 so we are not behind there either yet.
Some of the longer-range models are now showing the potential for a wave to develop in the Atlantic in week 2 or 3, but there is not much agreement about where it might go or how strong it would be so there is nothing to be concerned about at this point. Anything that would develop in the central Atlantic would take at least a week before it got close enough to the Southeast to be of concern unless you are in Puerto Rico, in which case it would be a concern a little bit earlier. The main part of the season doesn’t occur until late in August until mid-October, and I expect there will be a lot more activity in the coming weeks as the Saharan dust disappears and the atmospheric waves coming off African become stronger. For now, enjoy the quiet, especially since we are getting quite a bit of rain in spite of the lack of tropical activity, so no big drought seems likely this summer.
