NOAA released the latest ENSO outlook today. It shows that La Nina is currently present as it has been for the last month, but it is weak and is expected to transition back to ENSO-neutral conditions by the March-May period. Neutral conditions are expected to continue through most of the summer, which may lead to another active Atlantic tropical season. By the end of the summer, NOAA is predicting that a swing back to La Nina is twice as likely to occur as El Nino, but neutral conditions are the most probable by a small margin. In other words, the spring predictability barrier does not give us any useful information about next fall and winter at this time. You can read the latest diagnostic discussion at https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml
