Harrison Sincavage posted an article at iWeatherNet today about the shocking (to me and other meteorologist friends) statement that the National Hurricane Center put out about the expected impacts of Hurricane Katrina, which was approaching maximum storm intensity in the Gulf of Mexico on this date eleven years ago today. If you’ve never read the warning, you can see it at https://www.iweathernet.com/tropical/eleven-years-since-hurricane-katrinas-dire-forecast.
The Katrina forecast was amazingly good so far in advance, which as we know from this week looking at the spaghetti mess of forecast maps for Investigation 99L (now Tropical Depression 9 as of 5 pm) is not always so easy to do. The NHC described the impacts of the storm in vivid detail, warning of power outages for weeks, damage to half or more of houses and buildings, and loss of life. Fortunately for residents of the Gulf Coast, Katrina weakened quite a bit as it moved towards land and so the winds were much weaker by the time it came onshore, so building and tree damage in higher elevation areas was minimal. What remained of the storm, though, was a massive storm surge which overtopped the levees and sent water throughout low-lying areas of New Orleans, creating havoc in its own way. Human impacts were made worse by the slow response to this dire warning by New Orleans officials, who did not act quickly to get people out of harm’s way.
