The latest 7-day tropical outlook shows that the area of potential development in the western Caribbean has decreased from 50% to 40% chance of occurring in the next seven days. Most models show that any development is going to be very slow to pull together as the area of convection enters the Gulf of Mexico. Because it is not a circulation yet, model projections of where it will go are not trustworthy and almost anywhere in the Gulf could be affected. However, the entire ensemble of models does indicate that the most likely future for a storm, if it develops, is to the east across the Florida Peninsula as a weak storm. It could possibly not even be a named storm but just an area of wet, unsettled weather. There is not likely to be any associated rain with this system in Alabama or Georgia except perhaps along the immediate Gulf Coast. So we watch but are not particularly concerned at this time.
Meanwhile, Kirk has become a hurricane in the central Atlantic and very nearby, another storm is expected to become Leslie in the next few days. Kirk is forecast to become a major hurricane, but the path is expected to make a sharp turn to the north so it will not affect the Southeast, although it might make it to the United Kingdom. Potential storm Leslie is a little farther south and thus might not follow the same path as Kirk, but the storm is at least 10 days away from the United States and so we have plenty of time to watch to see if it follows a similar path to Kirk or moves farther west.
