NOAA’s official prediction for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season was released today. To no one’s surprise, they are predicting that the most likely number of named storms will be lower than the long-term average due to the strong El Nino that is expected to develop in the next few months during the heart of the Atlantic tropical season. In El Nino years, a strong jet stream aloft acts to prevent or weaken the vertical formation of the tropical cyclone winds into a tropical storm or hurricane. So fewer of the tropical waves that come off the coast of Africa or that form in the Gulf are likely to get strong enough to become named storms, which are the storms with the highest sustained winds and lowest pressure.
Officially, there is a 55% chance of fewer than average storms, 35% chance of an average number, and just a 10% chance of an above-normal season. Of course, this does not say anything about where the storms that do form might go, although I have read elsewhere that there is an expectation that quite a few of them may stay out to sea just like last year. You can read more about the official forecast as well as highlights of what improvements there are in this year’s hurricane forecasting technology, at https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa-predicts-below-normal-2026-atlantic-hurricane-season.
