The latest 7-day QPF map shows that several storms are expected to impact the Southeast over the next week as a few shortwaves move along a front located in the northern part of the region will bring pulses of rain to northern Alabama and Georgia as well as the western Carolinas and most of Tennessee. Some locations could see more than five inches of rain in the next week. Areas farther from the influence of the shortwaves such as southern Florida will see much less rain and perhaps none at all in the Florida Peninsula. This pattern is more consistent with the typical La Nina pattern we expect to see in winter than the weather has been earlier in the season.
Week 2 is also likely to be wetter than normal across much of the same region. Temperatures next week will be quite warm but will cool off to normal temperatures in Week 2. There is no sign of another Arctic outbreak in the long-range models at this point, and so above-normal temperatures could start to end the dormancy of fruit crops. This will put them at increased risk of frost damage if we do experience another cold spell late in February or in March. Since the average last frost date for Alabama and Georgia is late February into mid-March, we could easily see another freeze this year, so this is something producers will need to watch carefully.
