The latest climate outlook maps for February 2025 show that temperatures across the region are expected to be warmer than usual during the month across the region. Precipitation is expected to be drier than usual in the Florida Peninsula but a slight trend towards wetter conditions can be seen in parts of Tennessee and NW Alabama. This is a very typical pattern for a weak La Nina such as the one we are in now. Because of the warm and dry conditions in southern parts of the region, drought is expected to expand over the next month. This could lead to dry soil conditions going into the next growing season.
The longer-range weather models show that no frost is expected in most of the region at least through mid-February except in higher elevations and in northern parts of the region, especially Virginia. No freezing temperatures are expected for central GA and AL and points south at all for the next 2-3 weeks. Rainfall this week will be light but next week should be quite a bit wetter as a series of storms moves through the Ohio River Valley, bringing some showers to parts of Alabama, Georgia, and the Carolinas.
Early season drought and the impacts on agriculture are something to watch for this year, since the soil will have less moisture in reserve than in wetter years. Once the growing season starts (that depends on where you are due to temperature variations across the region), it is difficult to make up for a moisture deficit because as plants end their dormancy, their demand for water increases greatly and precipitation alone often cannot provide enough water if we go through a dry spell or unusually warm conditions.
