NOAA released their latest monthly ENSO outlook earlier this week, and it shows almost no change in the likelihood of a La Nina from last month’s prediction. They expect a weak La Nina to occur any time now and to last for a few months before returning to neutral conditions. The sea surface temperatures in the Eastern Pacific Ocean are running cooler than normal, as expected in a La Nina, but they are not cold enough to pass the threshold from neutral to La Nina conditions. You can read a long discussion of what is going on at NOAA’s Climate blog at https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/december-2024-enso-update-party-time-excellent.
