The latest ENSO prediction from NOAA, issued September 12, shows that we are still in a La Nina watch, with La Nina expected to be officially declared in the September through November time frame. It is expected to be a weak one that will last through the January-March 2025 period. A weak La Nina has less impact on global weather patterns than a strong one does, but we still expect to see the favored La Nina pattern of warmer and drier conditions than normal this winter, especially in southern Georgia and Alabama and in Florida. Other areas may see less correlation with a typical La Nina pattern because it is weak and other climate factors may become more important.
This does not mean that we won’t see any cold weather in the Southeast (after all, it will still be winter), but the overall pattern over the winter should tend towards warmer and drier conditions. That means that there is a greater than usual chance of overwintering of volunteer crops, pests, and diseases, so farmers will likely need to respond appropriately next spring as they get ready for the next year’s growing season. The dry conditions should improve access to the fields compared to this past spring, but it could mean more trouble getting seeds to germinate in the drier conditions. If you are planning to harvest timber this winter, you might be able to access areas that are normally too wet to bring in heavy equipment because of the drier conditions. If you are interested in reading more about how the forecast was made and why it has taken so long for La Nina to appear, you can find more answers in the ENSO blog at https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/september-2024-enso-update-binge-watch
