If you have been following the ENSO forecasts, you already know that we were in an El Nino last winter and that we are currently in neutral conditions headed for a La Nina later this year. NOAA released their latest monthly and seasonal forecasts today, and they show the very typical pattern of temperature and precipitation that we expect in a winter with a weak La Nina, the current ENSO forecast for the next few months.
For October, we are still expecting wetter than normal conditions, due primarily to the likelihood of returning to a more active tropical season, including a storm that is expected to form in the Gulf next week that could drop rain somewhere in the Southeast, although it is way too early to say anything about where that might be. For October through December, NOAA is predicting that the typical La Nina pattern of warmer than usual climate conditions are likely to be present over Florida and southern Alabama and Georgia, especially when combined with the trend toward higher temperatures. The October precipitation shows equal chances of above, near, and below normal rainfall because the wetter conditions associated with an active tropical season are conflicting with the drier than normal conditions expected as La Nina comes in. We don’t know which influence is going to win this year. These conditions are expected to last into the January through March period with a more typical La Nina pattern in both temperature and precipitation. Then the La Nina is expected to be waning but continues to influence the climate pattern.
