The latest outlook from the National Hurricane Center shows that there are currently two areas of concern. The area in the central Atlantic is the remains of TS Gordon, currently not well organized but with the potential for redevelopment over the warm water there. Gordon is not a concern for us in the Southeast. A bigger question mark is the area shown as a 20% chance of developing into a named storm in the next 7 days in the area south of Cuba and east of the Yucatan Peninsula. The longer-range forecasts for week 2 put that likelihood up to over 60%. So meteorologists are fairly sure that something will develop there, most likely in about 7-10 days. After that, there is a lot of uncertainty because the models are showing a lot of variation in the strength, timing, and path of whatever low pressure area develops.
Right now there is a tremendous amount of hype on social media showing maps of large hurricanes aimed for the west coast of Florida or the northern Gulf, but all of the maps that are being shown are single model predictions that have very little skill so far out, especially because there is not even an area of clouds there right now, much less a low pressure center. Most of the models do agree a storm is likely to form, and most also agree that the path is more likely to move north or east than west towards Texas. But beyond that, there is very little that can be said with any degree of certainty. If a storm forms in the yellow area, it will take a few days to cross the Gulf and make landfall, so you have time now to get ready and think about what you might need to do if the storm forms and heads towards you. Things to consider include the impacts of rainfall (which will likely be less than Debby because most tracks indicate the potential storm will move faster than Debby, dropping less precipitation at any one point) and strong winds, which could be tough on pecans and cotton as they get closer to harvest. My best advice is to follow the updated forecasts each day to see how the situation is evolving and do your planning and necessary field work accordingly, but don’t stress out over a storm at this point since there is too much we don’t know yet about where and when it might go, if it forms at all. The forecast is going to change over time, so make sure you are getting the most recent information each day and be prepared to adjust accordingly.
