What is the maximum amount of precipitation a storm could dump on a given area over time? This is a question that is studied by scientists at NOAA (I used to work for this research group many years ago). We need to know it for design of large projects like dams that require prudent planning for the worst case scenario for a flood that could affect a dam’s ability to withstand an extreme event. They also use this product, called Probable Maximum Precipitation, to engineer power plants (including nuclear ones) as well as dams.

In the past, estimates of PMP were done assuming that the climate was not changing, but we know that this is no longer the case. So the NOAA scientists are now trying to develop better estimates for building new infrastructure assuming that temperatures will rise, humidity will rise, and precipitation may be more heavy in the future. Here is an interesting article from NOAA Research describing how PMP has been estimated in the past and how the scientists are looking to change things in the future.

Flooded field in eastern North Carolina. Source: The Packer
Posted in: