NOAA released their latest ENSO outlook today. El Nino is firmly entrenched in place and is likely to be near peak strength right now. It is expected to weaken gradually over the next few months and then swing towards the opposite La Nina phase by late summer. If we are in a La Nina then, that will make another active tropical season in the Atlantic more likely. You can read more about it, including a discussion of the Madden-Julian Oscillation and how it affects ENSO, at https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/january-2024-el-nino-update-birds.
