The latest ENSO outlook from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center was released this week. They are now predicting that the current lengthy La Niña is likely to end by early spring and move through a neutral period in late spring and early summer before transitioning to El Niño later in summer and into fall. While ENSO predictions this time of year are less reliable than predictions in summer or fall, it is not unexpected. Something to keep in mind if this transition occurs as predicted–years with a rapid swing from La Niña to El Niño are often years in which a summer drought develops because the warm and dry winter conditions associated with La Niña leave limited reserves of soil moisture for the next growing season. So this is something I will be watching for this coming growing season.

Neutral conditions in spring are associated with greater chances of late frost, which would cause problems for fruit farmers, especially since many blueberries and peaches have gotten adequate chill hours already this winter due to the cold outbreak around Christmas. Also, if we are in El Niño by fall, that would likely reduce the Atlantic tropical activity in next year’s June through November season.

You can read more at https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml.