Scientists use models to study how single variables can affect a complex solution in engineering, economics, and physical and life sciences. These models can be conceptual, mechanical, or computational. In terrestrial climatology, the sheer number of variables that have to be included means that computer models are the best approach because once built, they allow you to make changes in one variable at a time and see how that changes the behavior of the modeled atmosphere/ocean system that makes up the Earth’s climate. You can also change things like the mix of energy sources that put out greenhouse gases, the availability of carbon-removing technologies, and other things that affect the makeup of the earth’s atmosphere.

The Washington Post recently did a study that looks at 1,200 different model results for how the Earth’s temperature could change over time through the year 2100 based on physical properties of the atmosphere that have been well known for over 100 years. Some of these 1,200 solutions are expected to bring the Earth back to a rise of 1.5 C from pre-industrial levels but temperatures may temporarily get warmer than that before decreasing back to 1.5 C. By eliminating model solutions that call for unrealistically drastic measures, they show that there are very few approaches left that will get us to 1.5 C by the end of the century, but there are solutions that are within reach if we are willing to make significant changes in our energy sources and add carbon-capture technology as well as do carbon sequestration in soils and forests that pull carbon out of the atmosphere. Farmers and foresters will therefore have to be part of the solution for keeping our world within a reasonable temperature range.

Of course, this is a very simplistic approach because climate also includes precipitation and other variables and these models don’t show how extreme weather events will change over time, but it does show that if we want to keep temperatures from getting and staying much warmer than the present climate, we need to take action and that action requires the help of all of us, including the agricultural community.