The latest ENSO update, released late last week, shows that while La Nina is still present in the Eastern Pacific Ocean, a transition to neutral conditions is likely in early 2023, with equal chances for La Nina and neutral conditions by January through March and a 73% chance of neutral conditions by February through April. Neutral conditions are likely to occur through the summer with a high potential for a transition into El Nino conditions by late summer. You can read the latest outlook at https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml.
Neutral conditions in spring and summer do not provide much guidance for what kind of climate conditions to expect. However, neutral conditions in spring are often linked to an increased likelihood of late frosts, and neutral conditions in summer are statistically tied to more active Atlantic hurricane seasons, so these will be things I will be watching for in the coming months as this transition starts to occur. There is also an increased chance of a drought in the summer after a La Nina winter due to lack of precipitation to recharge soil moisture in the winter months.
