April 2022 was a mixed bag climate-wise, with some areas in central Georgia receiving a lot of rain while others missed out. This led to dry conditions in some parts of the state that have farmers there worried. Temperatures in the northern ¾ of Georgia were cooler than normal overall, while farmers in southern Georgia experienced conditions that were a bit warmer than normal. As a result of the variable rainfall and warmer than average temperature, moderate drought and abnormally dry conditions cover a quite a bit of South Georgia as of the beginning of May.
The climate prediction for May shows a continuing trend towards warmer than normal temperatures across the state, but especially along the southeastern coastal plain. This is due both to the continuing trend towards warmer temperatures we see worldwide and the surprising continuation of La Niña into a third year. The prediction for May’s precipitation from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center shows us in equal chances of lower, near, and above normal rainfall for May. This is not surprising since our current weather state puts us in a summertime pattern, with daily thunderstorms (and some occasional severe weather) dropping rain in some places while it misses others, so large-scale rainfall patterns are hard to forecast. Because of that, the drought conditions are predicted to continue through May, although they may disappear later in summer once the tropical season kicks in.
The Atlantic tropical season officially begins on June 1. The predictions this year are for another active season due to the continuing influence of La Niña, which tends to suppress the jet stream which might otherwise keep tropical waves developing into storms or hurricanes. Of course, the predictions only cover the number of named storms per year, so we cannot say at this point if they will bring rain to the Southeast or if they will move over Texas or up the East Coast this year. Tropical rainfall is an important part of the water cycle in summer in the Southeast, so we hope that at least some tropical moisture will come over the summer. It is not too early to think about tropical storms, since for most of the last few years we have at least one named storm before the official start of the tropical season. The long-range models are already suggesting that we may get at least one storm in mid-May off the East Coast, although it may not bring much rain to most of the Southeast. Now is the time to prepare for hurricane weather, since the season will be on us before you know it.
The current La Niña has been surprisingly strong this year, and for now we don’t see an end. Only a couple of La Niñas since 1950 have lasted for three years, so this makes it more difficult to predict what effects it might have on climate conditions. For now, our best bet is to consider this just another La Niña summer, with limited effects on temperature and rainfall during the growing season and the biggest impact on the tropics.
If you are one of the areas that are experiencing dry conditions, you may wish to report those conditions to let the National Drought Monitor authors know so they can incorporate your reports into the national drought map. I have posted instructions for how to report to the Condition Monitoring Report site at https://site.extension.uga.edu/climate/2022/04/how-to-report-dry-conditions/.
