Over the years, climate models have improved in their ability to predict both short-term climate shifts and longer shifts in climate patterns. As climate models have become more sophisticated, the different models are in closer agreement with projections of what climate is likely to be like in the future, although there are still questions about their results. Agronomists are now using these projections to look at how food production across the globe is likely to change in the future. These new agronomic predictions are based on a variety of factors, including carbon dioxide fertilization, water balance, mean and extreme temperatures, and humidity levels that can affect plant growth as well as pathogens. A study published in Nature Food late last year shows that for the world as a whole, food production is expected to decline as population continues to grow. That will cause increases in famine in the future and may lead to more migration as people try to find food for their hungry families. Fortunately, farmers are learning to adapt to the changing climate and those adaptations have not yet been factored into the models. You can read more about the agronomic models and what results they are finding at Complex Models Now Gauge the Impact of Climate Change on Global Food Production. The Results Are ‘Alarming’ – Inside Climate News.

Source: Elliott Ross via the Washington Post