It took all day, but at 11 pm the National Hurricane Center declared the potential TS 6 has organized into a tropical storm named Fred. TS Fred is expected to continue on its predicted path along the arc of islands and then into the Gulf of Mexico. Fred is likely to have quite a bit of disruption from the mountains on Hispaniola and Cuba so is not expected to strengthen to hurricane status, but it could spin up again once it gets into the open Gulf and keep its strength as it approaches the northern Gulf Coast on Sunday. All of Florida is currently in the 5-day cone so needs to be prepared, but Alabama and Georgia should also be watching carefully.
The 5-day outlook shows that the wave coming off of Africa has been flagged for the potential for development, with the NHC saying that it has a 30 percent chance of developing in 5 days. The long-range models indicate that conditions along its path could be more favorable for development than Fred, so it could become a hurricane in time. Definitely something to watch but not an immediate threat.
